Published: Thu, May 17, 2018
Business | By Tara Barton

Iran becomes third largest oil exporter to India

Iran becomes third largest oil exporter to India

The market is now trading on the bullish side of this zone.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), or as I call them the "demand downers", once again are raising concerns about global oil demand.

Despite these downward forces, the market retains support from OPEC and other producers' production cuts and USA sanctions on Iran.

"According to preliminary supply data for 1Q2018, the combined liquids supply in the USA and Canada increased by 1.8 million b/d y/y", said MOMR. If a new nuclear pact is not sealed within next six months, global oil markets will tighten further.

Saudi Arabia made up the lion's share of spare production capacity, the IEA said.

Are speculators hesitant to short the market (bet on lower prices) as long as OPEC commits to reducing supply? That suggests demand won't suddenly fall off of a cliff.

Opec's Arabian Gulf producers and Russian Federation have about 1.3 million barrels a day of output idle, more than the 1.2 million barrels a day of Iranian exports that were lost when sanctions were previously imposed in 2012, according to the report. OPEC's latest monthly report says that 90 percent of supply growth outside the cartel this year will occur in the United States. However, capital expenditures (capex) rose by only 2% year/year (y/y), and were down by about 42% from 2014 levels.

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"For WTI, while it is under performing at this point, it is not by any means bearish for the USA benchmark", said Flynn. The glut that had weighed on prices for the past three years has finally been eliminated, thanks to strong demand and output cuts by other producers in OPEC, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday. The high price of Brent is attracting US exports. There is one big difference now, of course-shale's massive growth. Oil stocks were expected to drop further as peak summer driving season nears, offsetting increases in United States shale output, said analysts at Bernstein.

India received about 397,200 bpd of oil from Venezuela in April, the highest since September, up about 46.8 percent from a year ago, the data showed. It's important to remember how and why the market got to its current situation.

"The potential double supply shortfall represented by Iran and Venezuela could present a major challenge for producers to fend off sharp price rises and fill the gap", the IEA said. Other OPEC officials, meanwhile, have expressed complacency.

"Oil markets should become tighter due to a lower output from Iran, coupled with an ongoing contraction in Venezuelan output and OPEC cuts", said Daniela Corsini, commodity market economist at Intesa Sanpaolo in Milan.

A surge to triple digits is not guaranteed, of course. Both the EIA and API reports have come in very different, prompting a largely rotational oil trade.

"For now, the rapidly-changing geopolitical landscape will move the attention away from stocks as producers and consumers consider how to limit volatility in the oil market", the IEA said.

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