Published: Tue, April 17, 2018
Business | By Tara Barton

International Monetary Fund reviews downwards Ukraine's GDP growth forecast for 2019

International Monetary Fund reviews downwards Ukraine's GDP growth forecast for 2019

Romania's current account balance showed a deficit of 172 million euro ($212 million) in the first two months of 2018, compared to a surplus of 72 million euro in the same period of past year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) has projected India to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2018 and 7.8 per cent in 2019.

However, the latest International Monetary Fund growth rate projection remains unchanged since the last one in October 2017.

Beyond that horizon, it was more pessimistic, projecting global growth will fade as central banks tighten monetary policy, the US fiscal stimulus subsides and China's gradual slowdown continues.

"Against that positive backdrop, the prospect of a similarly broad-based conflict over trade presents a jarring picture", Maurice Obstfeld, IMF's Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, said in remarks accompanying the outlook.

Escalating trade restrictions and retaliation is another risk to the outlook, it said, noting the first shots in a potential trade war involving the U.S. have now been fired.

"There's still room for countries, I think, to engage in a more multilateral set of discussions to take advantage of the set of dispute resolution mechanisms in place to avoid any intensification", he said.

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As reported, the World Bank remained unchanged its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2018-2019 at 3.5% and 4% respectively.

The report kept the global growth rate projections at 3.9 percent for this year and the next that was made in January.

Forecasts were cut slightly for Canada, the Middle East and North African countries, as well as a number of low-income developing countries.

However, the bank said that if reforms are delayed, growth could drop below current levels in an uncertain macroeconomic environment as financing risks rapidly increase and GDP growth could slow to 2%.

That major economies are flirting with trade war at a time of widespread economic expansion may seem paradoxical, but can be understood in the context of waning public support for globalisation after long-standing trends of wage and job polarisation and sub-par median wage growth, Obstfeld said.

Turkey's economy is projected to grow above potential, buoyed by improved external demand conditions and supportive policies on multiple fronts-expansionary fiscal policy, state loan guarantees, pro-cyclical macro-prudential policy, and an accommodative monetary stance, the IMF said in its outlook on April 17, which was released as thousands of global finance officials were gathering in Washington for the IMF and World Bank spring meetings this week.

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